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Will Loonie Rebound Off Latest Jobs Numbers?

July 9, 2021
Frank Cabibi

7/9/2021

Canada posted great jobs data this morning after adding 230K new jobs in June, and unemployment rate met expectations at 7.8%, last month's was 8.2%. Oil is another big factor in the Canadian economy, and the latest OPEC meeting showed us some bearish sentiment as countries could not reach agreement. So far today, CAD has been up overall on this jobs news, but other factors are keeping things mixed for investors.

Our outlook

When it comes to the Canadian dollar alone, I am more bullish than not. And latest jobs news is a bullish sign going into next week as other countries are hurting like the US in unemployment claims. The recent rise in oil prices is a good sign too for the loonie, and USDCAD next week will probably be bearish up until US PPI news at the least.

Trade Setups

USDCAD

USDCAD on the 4H timeframe is still in an uptrend from early June, but recent price action and news suggests that we might be in for another leg lower. Price is still currently sitting on support, but if that breaks, we might see price go all the way back to a supportive trend line. However, price could see a bounce off this key support level.

CADJPY

CJ looks very bullish going into next week as the yen continues loses its luster amid risk-on sentiment. Safe havens are not looking as attractive right now, and this pair is heading toward resistance around 88.500 on the 4H timeframe. We can look for a break above this resistance line in order for price to come up and test more resistance at 88.900s.

CADCHF

CADCHF also looks bullish down at this price, especially since price has a ways to go to hit resistance around 0.73619 on the 4H timeframe. Could be a good play if you're trying to go against safe haven plays like the Yen or Swiss Franc.

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