A1 Trading Company

September 6, 2021

The Week Ahead: Central Banks Speaking Up

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

(AUD) RBA Rate Statement

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 0.10% this week at their Rate Statement. We may see some negative remarks considering the number of states placed back in lockdown over the past month.

Also, note that the GDP fell short of expectations in Q2 slowing from the previous expansion at 1.9% to just 0.7%; although the unemployment rate declines, it was mostly due to a fall in labour force participation. With this, policymakers may delay their tapering plans as they cited they will adjust to any "significant setback" for the economy.

(CAD) BoC Rate Statement

No interest rate changes are expected from the Canadian central bank, and officials will likely standstill ahead of the national elections after seeing the unexpected 1.1% contraction in Q2 GDP. Also, note that number crunchers are predicting a monthly GDP contraction for July mostly due to the disruption in the auto industry supply chain and weaker residential investment.

(EUR) Monetary Policy Statement

The European Central Bank is also expected to keep rates and bond purchases unchanged. Analysts are divided on whether or not the central bank will be making tapering plans, as the PEPP is scheduled to finish in Q1 next year. Scaling down the size of the purchases could make for a smoother transition to their regular QE program, but policymakers might still decide to defer any actual decision until later this year. Also, any significant revisions to growth and inflation forecasts at this time could impact taper speculations.

(CAD) Employment Change

The Employment Change report is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labour-market conditions.

Job creation is expected to show a slower 75k gain in hiring versus the earlier 94.5k increase, which should be enough to bring the unemployment rate down from 7.5% to 7.3% in August.

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