A1 Trading Company

October 4, 2021

The Week Ahead: NFP, OPEC-JMMC & Cash Rates

Bart Kurek

Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...

OPEC-JMMC Meetings

Every month, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) have a meeting to discuss the outlook of Oil and its performance. OPEC aims to control the price of oil by adjusting supply volumes. If its members want to increase the price of oil, they can revise their production quotas downwards to limit supply.

It's rumoured that the oil production companies are considering bumping up production again. Crude oil continues to trade at record highs and demand is expected to hang. Remember, the OPEC already agreed to increase output by 400k barrels per day until the end of the year, so another bump higher could push the commodity to new highs!

(AUD) RBA Rate Statement

No changes to the monetary policy are expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia for now. In their previous decision, they already started to taper asset purchases but also decided to extend the program for another three months. Data from the Land Down Under has been mixed, with jobs figures turning out weaker than expected, so policymakers would likely sit on their hands.

(NZD) Official Cash Rate

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to announce an interest rate hike from 0.25% to 0.50% in this week's statement. Economic data has been mostly positive, with the latest GDP and inflation figures beating expectations, so there's no reason for the RBNZ to delay tightening this time.

It will be interesting to see if the central bank will follow through with another interest rate hike in November, considering the first hike has already been priced in a while back.

(USD) NFP

Following the disappointing August report of an increase of 235k, way below expectations, for the month of September, employment is projected to increase by 490k, bringing the unemployment rate down from 5.2% to 5.1%

Leading indicators due throughout the week include the ISM Services PMI, which is expected to fall from 61.7 to 59.9, and the ADP report which is expected to show a 455k gain.

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