VIX Cooling After a Volatile Start to 2026

2026 started volatile, with geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty driving a sharp spike in fear. As tensions eased and rhetoric softened, markets stabilized and the VIX rolled over — signaling that near-term risk has been digested, for now.

So far in 2026, volatility has spiked and then resolved. The VIX has since rolled over, signaling that near-term fear has cooled. The year opened with geopolitical flare-ups, policy uncertainty, and headlines around Fed independence drove a sharp risk-off move. But as the week progressed, tensions eased and markets stabilized.

Trump stepping back from immediate action on Iran, clarifying he won’t remove Powell, and dialing down escalation risks helped deflate the volatility premium. Energy, gold, FX, and equities all saw sharp moves early in the week, followed by reversals as risk appetite returned.

For now, markets have digested the shock, and volatility has compressed.

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