A1 Trading Company

October 19, 2023

Post-CPI Score Flips

Frank Cabibi

This week was full of CPI news on top of the weekly US unemployment claims. The EdgeFinder has flipped its bias on a handful of pairs as a result. Here are some new setups for the remainder of the week:

EdgeFinder Analysis

USOil went from neutral to bullish on the EdgeFinder. The latest score flip changed when unemployment claims came out this morning lower than expected. The jump into bullish territory could start another leg of upside for the commodity that is hovering under the $90 mark.

Prices also rose after US sanctions eased in Venezuela and as Saudi Arabia's spare capacity is down to 3 to million barrels per day; the daily global demand is 103 million bpd. With rising global demand and shortening production, the price of oil may start to find some upside.

EURCAD is now a bullish reading after being in short sentiment all month. This flip is likely due to the recent inflation data that came from Canada. All of their CPI reports missed expectations suggesting weakness in the CAD as inflation is falling.

Price came up to resistance on the 1D timeframe for the second time and touched slightly higher. If the pair can break this level, we might see price come up to test the falling trend line. On the other hand, it is important to watch out for the increasing oil demand which is a benefactor to CAD which is very reliant on oil's performance..

The SPX500 fell from a -2 to a -3 on the EdgeFinder indicating that price is going back into bearish territory. Although we saw a lower number in unemployment claims, the labor market is the only factor with a positive reading.

The other categories such as inflation and GDP growth suggest weakness in stock market sentiment. October is not a historically bullish month for the index, so it might be stuck in mixed-to-bearish readings until next month when demand usually picks up.

Retail Spotlight

Retail shows that they are mostly bearish euro and swiss while being mixed GBP, SPX, US30, GER30. The three most bullish pairs from retail are EURCHF, GBPCHF, and NZDCAD.

Smart Money Spotlight

On the Smart Money side, institutions are mostly bullish EUR and USOil. SPX and CAD are still bearish and saw growing bearish sentiment overall.

Fundamental Spotlight

The recent inflation study for EURCAD shows a decrease in both countries' CPI numbers. The timeline shows a declining inflation rate over time as well. Because euro has a higher rate, however, it will get a +1 overall for the inflation score.

A1 Edgefinder

All-In-One Fundamental Dashboard!
Simplify your fundamental analysis with our all-in-one fundamental dashboard! 
Discount code: READER

Learn more

Dollar Remains Strong

Indices recover from Friday's lows as the dollar index hovers at break even. The mounting tensions in Israel-Iran escalated market worries, but financial earnings have kicked off to a good start. EdgeFinder Analysis Retail Sales came in higher than expected which is a good sign for the economy. It's also strong for the USD as […]

Read More
Hotter CPI Shakes Markets

Yesterday's CPI numbers in the US caused considerable doubt in the expectations of a June rate cut. This morning's PPI came in lower than expected. But, it might not be enough to convince investors of a summer rate cut. EdgeFinder Analysis EURUSD is a -8 now on the EdgeFinder indicating dollar strength after the higher […]

Read More
Key Inflation Data Weighs on Investor Sentiment

Wednesday's inflation report in the US will be very pivotal in how USD-related assets will react for the next month. Higher CPI has investors worried of the Fed who still looks to cut rates at some point this year, but the inflationary trend could determine when these rate cuts come. EdgeFinder Analysis We have been […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
Home
Edgefinder
Signals
There is a significant degree of risk involved in trading securities. With respect to foreign exchange trading, there is considerable risk exposure, including but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
homesmartphonelaptop-phonemenumenu-circle linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram