A1 Trading

Markets Struggle at the Highs

June 17, 2024
Frank Cabibi

After starting off the month with numerous heavy news events, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both ended up at all time highs. Now the question that remains is whether or not this trend can continue. Here is my outlook on USD-related assets.

10 year T-notes are now very bullish on the EdgeFinder for several fundamental reasons. As yields continue to stay below 5%, the market anticipates a rate cut by September. Inflation showed a slight cooling in the US, while labor remains relatively steady in accordance with the Fed's plan of a soft landing.

Although there is still a possibility the Fed won't cut in September, current sentiment suggests lower yields. In turn, the price of these bonds will likely rise unless we see a hawkish shift in the Fed's tone.

The S&P remains on an incredible run from October's lows of 2023. We are now breaching to new highs on the index at the time of writing this. It seems as if the direction is set for the summer. There is not much else to see from the fundamental data until next month and August.

If the rate cut chances stay favorable in September, the market may continue to slowly push higher during the summer months. Until we see that shift, if it comes, it will be hard to trade against the upside on this trend.

Gold still remains bullish as it sits one point away from a strong bullish reading. Smart money continues to slowly buy up this metal and is the most longed asset on the EdgeFinder. Aside from NFP, labor has been on a steady decline for the past year.

This in turn with falling yields could be a great setup for gold's strength. On top of that, GDP, PMI and retail sales numbers seem to suggest an overall slippage in the US economy. Stubborn inflation is what could be causing the slower output.

Retail Spotlight

Retail's major short positions lie in the equities market and the dollar. The S&P is now 73% shorted by traders, and Ethereum is nearly 90% long. Gold and other indices remain mixed for the time being.

Smart Money Spotlight

Smart money is getting bigger positions in oil and bond notes. Gold is seeing little bullish change but remains as the most bullish COT position. Meanwhile, US30, NAS and SPX change red. USD is basically unchanged.

Fundamental Spotlight

Inflation data in the US has not moved enough to suggest a rate cut yet. However, if Fed predictions leave us with one this year, it is still enough to get investors optimistic about the market again.

The EdgeFinder

All-in-one Fundamental Dashboard

30 Days Access

Free Telegram

Join for daily analysis and trade setups!

Join Telegram

DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here

A1 Trading Company

A1 Trading is a leading financial analysis and trading education company dedicated to empowering traders of all levels. Our team combines extensive market knowledge with cutting-edge technology to provide valuable insights and tools for traders worldwide.
2024 All Rights Reserved | A1 Trading Company
There is a significant degree of risk involved in trading securities. With respect to foreign exchange trading, there is considerable risk exposure, including but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram