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USD: Time to Buy?

April 12, 2021
Frank Cabibi

USD- The Dollar

Fundamental Analysis

COT Reports:

At the time of writing this, COT reports on the dollar show that the majority of non-commercial positions are long (71% long). The number of long futures contracts open are actually the highest they have been YTD suggesting that there will be some more bullish momentum to the upside.

CPI and Core Retail Sales:

CPI is to report early on in the week in the hopes of breaking last month’s numbers at 0.4% for March. Core retail sales are expected to be significantly higher than last month's going from a -2.7% to +4.7%. Retail sales data will come out Thursday as investors are expecting considerable volatility on that day. The majority of which think that the USD will see further upside in demand.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY 1D chart

USDJPY on the daily chart showing a quick bounce on this pair after hitting support and bouncing off on the same daily candle. The orange area marks a previous high the pair had last year at around 109.831. Friday's candle from last week had trouble coming up above that level, but the pair is testing it once more. Additional support lies on a rising trend line created at the start of 2021.

Retail Sentiment

For the majority of major pairs, traders are overall short on USD which could be a sign that a potential reversal in demand is coming, but last week's analysis on the Canadian loonie said otherwise. And CAD kept increasing in demand. USD still looks like it has a lot of momentum to last a while longer.

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