A1 Trading

FOMC Predictions This Week

March 18, 2024
Frank Cabibi

This week's FOMC meeting is going to stir major markets as the US indices start off in the green. Some demand has returned to the dollar as well while gold and oil remain in consolidation. Here are the probable outcomes we think will happen in this week's FOMC.

EdgeFinder Analysis

USOil remains in the bullish camp according to EdgeFinder analysis. At +6, the commodity is back above a significant resistance level on the 1D timeframe. The score moved up 2 points today on retail sentiment leaning more towards neutrality and a higher trend reading.

What we will likely see from the Fed on Wednesday are unchanged interest rates as inflation may start to be more of a threat to monetary policy. This will likely either mean high rates for longer and a delay on the rate cuts. It seems pretty improbable for the Fed to hike at this time now.

Gold is still holding itself above support on the previous all time highs around $2,148. With today's candle showing rejection from the lows and a possible bullish hammer, the metal may be able to hold itself above support.

Although the dollar is rising today, gold is also up. After a meteoric run to new highs, the metal may be ready to take a break for a while before the FOMC. Traders are looking out for the potential weakness in gold's market if the Fed does not show any concerns around inflation.

NZDUSD ticked up one point today but is still in the bearish territory. Retail sentiment is now under 60% long, COT suggests dollar bullishness and kiwi bearishness, and the score flip from March 14 suggests further moves lower.

Investors might be gearing for a stronger dollar this week as the Fed may want to keep rates higher for a while. New Zealand also releases their GDP numbers on Wednesday which is expected to come in higher than last month.

Retail Spotlight

Cryptos are now the most bought assets in the retail crowd. They also seem to be majority dollar short, index short, and oil mixed.

Smart Money Spotlight

COT is heavily long NIKKEI, metals other than gold, and USD this week. Meanwhile, bitcoin, oil and NASDAQ were not getting much attention. Gold is slightly selling while many currencies like AUD, CHF, CAD and NZD are being sold. It seems like a risk-off sort of week if smart money is bullish dollar and metals.

Fundamental Spotlight

Japan released their rate statement today which remained unchanged for the quarter at -0.10%. Forecasts still have rates moving higher throughout 2024 however. Expectations go as high as 0.37% by the end of the year.

The EdgeFinder

All-in-one Fundamental Dashboard

30 Days Access

Free Telegram

Join for daily analysis and trade setups!

Join Telegram

DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here

A1 Trading Company

A1 Trading is a leading financial analysis and trading education company dedicated to empowering traders of all levels. Our team combines extensive market knowledge with cutting-edge technology to provide valuable insights and tools for traders worldwide.
2024 All Rights Reserved | A1 Trading Company
There is a significant degree of risk involved in trading securities. With respect to foreign exchange trading, there is considerable risk exposure, including but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram