A1 Trading Company

February 14, 2021

Weekly Forex Forecast for USDJPY, GBPNZD, EURJPY, XAUUSD (14-19 February 2021)

Bart Kurek

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending February 19th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, GBPNZD, EURJPY & XAUUSD.

USD/JPY

Price has recently broken out of this long-term descending channel and is now forming a new uptrend. I've got my eye on the H4-OB at 104.2 and the Daily-OB at 103.5. Most trades will most likely go long at the trend line, but I think price will most likely fake-out lower to take out retailers before reversing and continuing a move to the upside to take out previous highs. Moreover, the Dollar had to contend with more underwhelming jobs data in the form of claims right after Fed chair Powell delivered a somewhat dovish and downbeat address at the NY Economic Club. In short, he underlined flaws in the labour metrics that if eradicated would put the unemployment rate nearer 10% and indicated that the FOMC would overlook a near term inflation spike due to COVID related factors.

GBP/NZD

This pair has been falling in price, following the descending trend line for almost a whole year now. Price is now slowly breaking out from this structure and following the ascending triangle pattern printed on the chart. I think we could see price test the Daily-OB at 1.902-1.895 before reversing and continuing it's movement to the upside. We've also been seeing GBP gain relative strength as a whole for multiple reasons such as the vaccine rollout which would stabilise price in the medium-term, we also had the BoE keep its Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10%, and its QE program at £895B.

EUR/JPY

We've got this bearish OB formed from the H4 timeframe at 127.35 where I would ideally like to enter a short position. I'm expecting price to break this trend and make a move to the downside towards the OB at 125.2, to mainly stop out retail traders as most traders will likely go long now, but I'm expecting a Liquidity Raid to stop out traders, make them believe that price is breaking to the upside, then once again reverse, stopping them out and continuing to the downside. This is of course after successive price action confirmations.

XAU/USD

This one could be a bit complicated, as there is quite a lot going on; however, my overall bias is bullish on Gold. We recently collected orders from the Bullish Daily-OB at 1790. Currently, price is forming a triangle pattern, suggesting we could see a break to either side, there is a lot of indecision in the market. In the short-term, we could see price head towards the triangle's top at 1845, which is also the long-term descending channel's top if we see price break through the intraday resistance at 1828. However, if we see price breakthrough to the upside, we should easily see price head towards that grey liquidity zone, from there on it's up to the market if we see price reverse or continue travelling to new highs.

A1 Edgefinder

All-In-One Fundamental Dashboard!
Simplify your fundamental analysis with our all-in-one fundamental dashboard! 
Discount code: READER

Learn more

My Crazy Trade On Gold: Up $8000

Hey Traders! This week has been wild for Gold! Thanks to insights from the EdgeFinder, I've been in a trade on XAUUSD since May 3rd. Initially, I jumped in due to weak jobs and PMI data, sticky inflation, and solid support/market structure. Here’s a quick look at my gold trade: Entry Recap: On May 13th, […]

Read More
Is Gold the Buy of 2024?

Rates move lower after the BoE announced their latest monetary policy report to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%. Unemployment came in higher this morning with the 30-year bond auction coming up Thursday afternoon. In the midst of a slow news week in the US, gold is sitting at a very favorable position according to the […]

Read More
Yields Fall Ahead of Earnings

More earnings reports come out this week is causing an inflow of buyers in the equities market while yields begin the week on a decline. Last week's Fed meeting showed up as "less hawkish" than investors expected causing risk appetite to increase at the start of the summer months. EdgeFinder Analysis As we come off […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
Home
Edgefinder
Signals
There is a significant degree of risk involved in trading securities. With respect to foreign exchange trading, there is considerable risk exposure, including but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
homesmartphonelaptop-phonemenucross-circle linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram