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A1 Trading

Expecting Lower NFP

July 1, 2024
Frank Cabibi

The US is expected a lower NFP number than last month which is only 189K jobs added as opposed to 272K reported last month. More importantly, Powell is set to speak tomorrow morning in a discussion called the "policy panel".

NASDAQ Score Drops

The heavy tech index's score dropped by one point today after retail gets a little more bullish on the index. July is historically a bullish month for the stock market, so we might see some more of this melt up in Q3.

However, investors need to brace for what may come next. Especially if we see a rate cut this year, the economy is poised to get significantly weaker. Stubborn inflation has not moved sub-3% YTD. If a cut happens this year, how can the Fed justify lowering prices?

Time For A Pullback?

Markets start off the month with little change today after a big sell off on Friday. As we enter the second half of the year, investors grow more and more uncertain about the Fed's monetary policy decisions. They are also trying to evaluate if a cut is going to help or hurt the economy.

In the short term, the consumer would benefit from lower rates, but the inflationary problem would likely worsen as a result over time. The indices are definitely overvalued right now, but the question is whether the AI rally will continue.

Gold Drops to Neutral

Gold is now a +3 score which is not enough to give us a clear bias either way. Bond yields rise this morning as the dollar falls. Gold's price is rising, however, we are up against a strong level of resistance formed on the 1D timeframe.

Retail Spotlight

The crowd is long metals, oil, DAX, small caps. They are mixed gold, NIKKEI, DOW and NAS. Their top short plays are AUDUSD, SPX500, USDJPY.

Smart Money Spotlight

COT reports still show that smart money positions have shifted to being short NIKKEI, DOW and EUR. The top buys were on AUD, NZD, PLATINUM and NAS.

Fundamental Spotlight

Manufacturing PMI data came in lighter than expected as more signs of a contracting economy were shown today. We should expect some turbulent markets either direction because there is no bias as of now.

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